{"id":2806,"date":"2021-11-14T01:18:23","date_gmt":"2021-11-14T04:18:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blogsoestado.com\/joaquimhaickel\/?p=2806"},"modified":"2021-11-14T01:18:23","modified_gmt":"2021-11-14T04:18:23","slug":"sobre-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\/joaquimhaickel\/2021\/11\/14\/sobre-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Sobre 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Um empres\u00e1rio amigo meu me ligou pedindo que eu comentasse sobre os poss\u00edveis caminhos que a pol\u00edtica do Maranh\u00e3o pode tomar, e resolvi postar aqui hoje, o que eu disse pra ele naquela ocasi\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Falei-lhe sobre alguns dos cen\u00e1rios que poder\u00e3o se materializar em 2022, me abstendo de dar minha opini\u00e3o pessoal e valorativa em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a qualquer uma das possibilidades ou a pol\u00edtica em si.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Primeiro busquei enxergar as coisas do ponto de vista do grupo do governador Fl\u00e1vio Dino.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acredito que a melhor op\u00e7\u00e3o para Fl\u00e1vio seria ele ser candidato a vice de Lula, fato que \u00e9 bastante plaus\u00edvel. Neste cen\u00e1rio Brand\u00e3o seria candidato a governador e Weverton indicaria os candidatos a senador e a vice de Brand\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por\u00e9m h\u00e1 uma vari\u00e1vel neste contexto. A montagem de um cen\u00e1rio ainda maior, algo mais monumental, que resultasse em uma ampla coalis\u00e3o, que envolvesse tamb\u00e9m o grupo Sarney, o que sacramentaria de uma vez a elei\u00e7\u00e3o de todos, sem que muitas for\u00e7as, pol\u00edticas e financeiras fossem despendidas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neste caso a vaga ao senado ser oferecida ao grupo Sarney, cabendo a Weverton aceitar indicar o suplente de senador e o vice-governador.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essa arquitetura seria digna de um Oscar de melhor dire\u00e7\u00e3o de arte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outra boa op\u00e7\u00e3o para Dino seria ele ser candidato a senador, Brand\u00e3o a governador e Weverton indicar os candidatos a suplente de senador e vice-governador.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aqui tamb\u00e9m pode haver a troca do parceiro de chapa. No lugar de se compor com o grupo de Weverton, Fl\u00e1vio poderia se compor com o grupo Sarney!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e1, por\u00e9m, um outro cen\u00e1rio que pode acabar se materializando. Seria Fl\u00e1vio concorrer ao senado com a mulher de Jerry na supl\u00eancia, Brand\u00e3o disputar o governo com Felipe Camar\u00e3o de vice, o que iria rachar seu grupo e faria com que o resultado ficasse completamente imprevis\u00edvel, principalmente se outros candidatos ao senado e ao governo entrarem na disputa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agora vejamos as coisas do ponto de vista do grupo do senador Weverton Rocha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fazer acordo com o governador Fl\u00e1vio Dino, n\u00e3o \u00e9 de todo mal para Weverton, desde que ele possa indicar o suplente de Fl\u00e1vio e o vice de Brand\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caso isso n\u00e3o aconte\u00e7a, a melhor op\u00e7\u00e3o para Weverton \u00e9 ceder a vaga de senador e de vice-governador em sua chapa para quem possa oferecer a ele for\u00e7as suficientes e necess\u00e1rias para vencer seus advers\u00e1rios, no caso, Dino e Brand\u00e3o. Essas for\u00e7as seriam Roseana Sarney, Eduardo Braide, Roberto Rocha, Josimar de Maranh\u00e3ozinho, Lahesio Bonfim e Edvaldo Junior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por fim, imaginando agora um cen\u00e1rio visto com os olhos dos outros atores desse enredo, algo pouco prov\u00e1vel, mas fact\u00edvel de acontecer, caso seja poss\u00edvel haver algum tipo de acordo entre lideran\u00e7as de temperamentos e posicionamentos t\u00e3o diversos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roseana Sarney, Eduardo Braide, Roberto Rocha, Josimar de Maranh\u00e3ozinho, Lahesio Bonfim e Edvaldo Junior, s\u00f3 precisariam esperar que o grupo comandado pelo governador Fl\u00e1vio Dino se divida, para unirem for\u00e7as formando uma chapa capaz de concorrer de igual para igual com as outras, inclusive, quem sabe, at\u00e9 garantindo uma vaga no segundo turno das elei\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At\u00e9 pelo fato de ser detentor do poder de mando e ter maior possibilidade de montagens de uma boa chapa, o grupo do governador Fl\u00e1vio Dino, tem a vantagem nesta disputa. Mesmo assim o grupo do senador Weverton Rocha \u00e9 mais aguerrido e mais bem estruturado politicamente, uma vez que o grupo governista passou oito anos dando pouca aten\u00e7\u00e3o aos pol\u00edticos. Quanto aos outros grupos, ou eles se esfacelaram ou nunca existiram efetivamente e para existirem de fato, precisariam se entender.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resumo da \u00f3pera: No que diz respeito ao senado, os cen\u00e1rios s\u00e3o favor\u00e1veis a Fl\u00e1vior, caso n\u00e3o tenha um concorrente que possa motivar a latente rea\u00e7\u00e3o subterr\u00e2nea que h\u00e1 contra todo detentor de poder que age como ele.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quanto a disputa pelo Governo do Estado, o cen\u00e1rio mais prov\u00e1vel \u00e9 aquele com pelo menos quatro candidatos. Brand\u00e3o, Weverton, Edivaldo e Lahesio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sobre o resultado… Eu nunca fui de prever resultados. J\u00e1 disse e repito, eu analiso cen\u00e1rios. Quem quiser que tire suas pr\u00f3prias conclus\u00f5es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A mim s\u00f3 resta repetir o que dizia o grande Lister Caldas, \u201cQuem viver ver\u00e1\u201d!…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Um empres\u00e1rio amigo meu me ligou pedindo que eu comentasse sobre os poss\u00edveis caminhos que a pol\u00edtica do Maranh\u00e3o pode […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sem-categoria"],"yoast_head":"\nSobre 2022 - Joaquim Haickel<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\/joaquimhaickel\/2021\/11\/14\/sobre-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sobre 2022 - Joaquim Haickel\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Um empres\u00e1rio amigo meu me ligou pedindo que eu comentasse sobre os poss\u00edveis caminhos que a pol\u00edtica do Maranh\u00e3o pode […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\/joaquimhaickel\/2021\/11\/14\/sobre-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Joaquim Haickel\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-14T04:18:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.blogsoestado.com\/joaquimhaickel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2021\/11\/Bola-de-Cristal-758x569-1-1.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Joaquim Haickel\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Joaquim Haickel\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. tempo de leitura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\\\/joaquimhaickel\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/14\\\/sobre-2022\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\\\/joaquimhaickel\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/14\\\/sobre-2022\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Joaquim Haickel\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\\\/joaquimhaickel\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4a711644aff28245c6c2c3452d66d325\"},\"headline\":\"Sobre 2022\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-14T04:18:23+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\\\/joaquimhaickel\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/14\\\/sobre-2022\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":757,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\\\/joaquimhaickel\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/14\\\/sobre-2022\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.blogsoestado.com\\\/joaquimhaickel\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/6\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/Bola-de-Cristal-758x569-1-1.jpg\",\"inLanguage\":\"pt-BR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\\\/joaquimhaickel\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/14\\\/sobre-2022\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\\\/joaquimhaickel\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/14\\\/sobre-2022\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\\\/joaquimhaickel\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/14\\\/sobre-2022\\\/\",\"name\":\"Sobre 2022 - 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