{"id":2508,"date":"2020-10-10T09:21:54","date_gmt":"2020-10-10T12:21:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blogsoestado.com\/joaquimhaickel\/?p=2508"},"modified":"2020-10-10T09:21:54","modified_gmt":"2020-10-10T12:21:54","slug":"assunto-de-conversas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs2.blogsoestado.com\/joaquimhaickel\/2020\/10\/10\/assunto-de-conversas\/","title":{"rendered":"Assunto de conversas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.blogsoestado.com\/joaquimhaickel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2020\/10\/irtyumages-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2509\" width=\"271\" height=\"203\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e3o h\u00e1 uma \u00fanica ocasi\u00e3o em que eu me encontre com pessoas, seja no supermercado, no posto de gasolina, num almo\u00e7o, jantar ou reuni\u00e3o de qualquer natureza, que algu\u00e9m n\u00e3o me pergunte algo que envolva pol\u00edtica e elei\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uma coisa sempre deixo bem clara aos meus interlocutores. Em que pese eu me posicionar dentro do cen\u00e1rio, ter lado, procuro analisar sempre com a maior isen\u00e7\u00e3o poss\u00edvel, de modo mais racional e imparcial que eu puder, at\u00e9 porque de nada serviria para mim ou para quem quer que seja, uma an\u00e1lise ou vis\u00e3o passional de alguma situa\u00e7\u00e3o ou conjuntura pol\u00edtica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No caso mais premente, a elei\u00e7\u00e3o para prefeito de S\u00e3o Lu\u00eds, a mim parece muito claro que s\u00f3 existem tr\u00eas candidaturas com reais chances de vit\u00f3ria. Tanto isso \u00e9 verdade que nem bem a campanha come\u00e7ou, dois candidatos j\u00e1 desistiram. Os motivos reais das desist\u00eancias \u00e9 a impossibilidade de uma candidatura minimamente vi\u00e1vel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eduardo Braide tem claramente a prefer\u00eancia da maioria do eleitorado. Est\u00e1 com inten\u00e7\u00e3o de voto consolidada bem pr\u00f3xima dos 50%. Duarte J\u00fanior tem algo em torno de 15% e Neto Evangelista chega f\u00e1cil a 10%, deixando 25% para todos os outros candidatos, al\u00e9m dos indecisos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e3o s\u00e3o favas contadas, mas imagino que Braide possa vencer a elei\u00e7\u00e3o no primeiro turno. Caso o quadro se mantenha sem grandes altera\u00e7\u00f5es, Braide estar\u00e1 garantido no segundo turno, tendo Duarte e Neto que disputam quem vai ter o privil\u00e9gio de enfrent\u00e1-lo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Em minha modesta opini\u00e3o, Neto tem grande possibilidade de ultrapassar Duarte, uma vez que tem mais estrutura pol\u00edtica e partid\u00e1ria que seu oponente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nesta peleja, intestina, do grupo do governador Fl\u00e1vio Dino, teremos uma pr\u00e9via da disputa pela cadeira de governador, que acontecer\u00e1 mais adiante. Duarte \u00e9 o candidato do vice-governador Carlos Brand\u00e3o, e Neto \u00e9 patrocinado pelo senador Weverton Rocha. \u00c9 bem aqui come\u00e7a aquilo que pode vir a ser o in\u00edcio da ruptura do grupo do governador ou o in\u00edcio de um acordo de acomoda\u00e7\u00e3o onde os dois lados possam manter-se unidos, coisa que n\u00e3o creio, pois como n\u00e3o sofrem nenhuma amea\u00e7a externa, v\u00e3o ter mesmo que se engalfinhar para decidir quem ser\u00e1 o pr\u00f3ximo governador do Maranh\u00e3o,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A disputa em S\u00e3o Lu\u00eds, bem como nos demais munic\u00edpios, ser\u00e1 o term\u00f4metro disso. Mas deixemos para depois as conversas sobre a sucess\u00e3o do governador e voltemos \u00e0 elei\u00e7\u00e3o municipal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dos tr\u00eas contendores, Neto \u00e9 aquele que tem a maior e melhor estrutura pol\u00edtica e partid\u00e1ria, Duarte tem o frescor da novidade e Braide representa o grande anseio de mudan\u00e7a, que \u00e9 uma das maiores caracter\u00edsticas do eleitorado daquela que \u00e9 conhecida como ilha rebelde, que faz tempo sofre de certa letargia e parece querer estabelecer novos rumos para si, apostar que algu\u00e9m fora dos esquemas da prefeitura, do governo do estado e dos grandes grupos hegem\u00f4nicos possa melhorar seu destino.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Est\u00e1 mais do que claro que Braide pode vencer a elei\u00e7\u00e3o no primeiro turno. Caso isso n\u00e3o ocorra, ele ficar\u00e1 comodamente esperando para saber qual representante do cons\u00f3rcio de candidatos do governo do estado ir\u00e1 enfrentar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A pergunta que fica \u00e9: caso Neto v\u00e1 para o segundo turno, Brand\u00e3o vai querer fortalecer Weverton e perder espa\u00e7o na disputa do governo em 2022? Caso Duarte v\u00e1 para o segundo turno, Weverton vai fortalecer Brand\u00e3o e perder espa\u00e7o em sua tentativa de ser governador do Maranh\u00e3o?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quanto mais eu penso, mais tenho certeza que o melhor para todo mundo \u00e9 que essa elei\u00e7\u00e3o seja decidida logo no primeiro turno.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>N\u00e3o h\u00e1 uma \u00fanica ocasi\u00e3o em que eu me encontre com pessoas, seja no supermercado, no posto de gasolina, num [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sem-categoria"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - 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